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The Next 100 Years
Cover of The Next 100 Years
The Next 100 Years
A Forecast for the 21st Century
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China fragments, a new Cold War with Russia, Mexcio challenges U.S., the new great powers Turkey, Poland and Japan. The Next 100 Years is a fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies...
China fragments, a new Cold War with Russia, Mexcio challenges U.S., the new great powers Turkey, Poland and Japan. The Next 100 Years is a fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies...
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  • China fragments, a new Cold War with Russia, Mexcio challenges U.S., the new great powers Turkey, Poland and Japan. The Next 100 Years is a fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world from one of our most incisive futurists.
    In his provocative book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
    The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including:
    • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
    • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
    • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
    • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
    • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.
    Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.

Excerpts-

  • Chapter 1 CHAPTER 1


    The Dawn of the American Age


    There is a deep-seated belief in America that the United States is approaching the eve of its destruction. Read letters to the editor, peruse the Web, and listen to public discourse. Disastrous wars, uncontrolled deficits, high gasoline prices, shootings at universities, corruption in business and government, and an endless litany of other shortcomings—all of them quite real—create a sense that the American dream has been shattered and that America is past its prime. If that doesn't convince you, listen to Europeans. They will assure you that America's best day is behind it.
    The odd thing is that all of this foreboding was present during the presidency of Richard Nixon, together with many of the same issues. There is a continual fear that American power and prosperity are illusory, and that disaster is just around the corner. The sense transcends ideology. Environmentalists and Christian conservatives are both delivering the same message. Unless we repent of our ways, we will pay the price—and it may be too late already.
    It's interesting to note that the nation that believes in its manifest destiny has not only a sense of impending disaster but a nagging feeling that the country simply isn't what it used to be. We have a deep sense of nostalgia for the 1950s as a "simpler" time. This is quite a strange belief. With the Korean War and McCarthy at one end, Little Rock in the middle, and Sputnik and Berlin at the other end, and the very real threat of nuclear war throughout, the 1950s was actually a time of intense anxiety and foreboding. A widely read book published in the 1950s was entitled The Age of Anxiety. In the 1950s, they looked back nostalgically at an earlier America, just as we look back nostalgically at the 1950s.
    American culture is the manic combination of exultant hubris and profound gloom. The net result is a sense of confidence constantly undermined by the fear that we may be drowned by melting ice caps caused by global warming or smitten dead by a wrathful God for gay marriage, both outcomes being our personal responsibility. American mood swings make it hard to develop a real sense of the United States at the beginning of the twenty-first century. But the fact is that the United States is stunningly powerful. It may be that it is heading for a catastrophe, but it is hard to see one when you look at the basic facts.
    Let's consider some illuminating figures. Americans constitute about 4 percent of the world's population but produce about 26 percent of all goods and services. In 2007 U.S. gross domestic product was about $14 trillion, compared to the world's GDP of $54 trillion—about 26 percent of the world's economic activity takes place in the United States. The next largest economy in the world is Japan's, with a GDP of about $4.4 trillion—about a third the size of ours. The American economy is so huge that it is larger than the economies of the next four countries combined: Japan, Germany, China, and the United Kingdom.
    Many people point at the declining auto and steel industries, which a generation ago were the mainstays of the American economy, as examples of a current deindustrialization of the United States. Certainly, a lot of industry has moved overseas. That has left the United States with industrial production of only $2.8 trillion (in 2006): the largest in the world, more than twice the size of the next largest industrial power, Japan, and larger than Japan's and China's industries combined.
    There is talk of oil shortages, which certainly seem to exist and will undoubtedly increase. However, it is important to realize that the United States...

About the Author-

  • GEORGE FRIEDMAN is the founder and CEO of STRATFOR, the world's leading private intelligence and forecasting company. He is frequently called upon as a media expert and is the author of four books, including most recently America's Secret War, and numerous articles on national security, information warfare, computer security, and the intelligence business. He lives in Austin, Texas.

Reviews-

  • Publisher's Weekly

    December 15, 2008
    With a unique combination of cold-eyed realism and boldly confident fortune-telling, Friedman (America’s Secret War
    ) offers a global tour of war and peace in the upcoming century. The author asserts that “the United States’ power is so extraordinarily overwhelming” that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and ’20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names “battle stars.” Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedman’s 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedman’s crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment.

  • Barron's "Barron's consistently has found Stratfor's insights informative and largely on the money--as has the company's large client base, which ranges from corporations to media outlets and government agencies."
  • New York Observer "Friedman ... has a record of clear-eyed thinking. He has the unusual ability to view events through the eyes of not only American but also foreign leaders. There's no posturing or rhetoric with Mr. Friedman: He approaches problems like a policymaker forced to select from an unappetizing menu of options ... Since 9/11, there's been a continuous flow of books on American foreign policy, terrorism, Iraq, and the Arab and Islamic worlds. Most are forgettable; few have the power and insight of George Friedman's taut and smartly argued America's Secret War."
  • Booklist "It delivers a clearer, deeper, and subtler understanding of the post-9/11 world than we will ever get from listening to the cacophony of talking heads on television."

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